Higher temperatures mean higher food and other prices. A new study links climate shocks to #inflation

“There are these productivity shocks that we know about from climate change, from the weather phenomena caused by climate change, from heat waves and so forth to reduce agricultural productivity,” Kotz said. “Those also then have a knock-on effect on food inflation, on headline inflation.”

#ClimateInflation
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2024-03-22/higher-temperatures-mean-higher-food-and-other-prices-a-new-study-links-climate-shocks-to-inflation

Beyond #ClimateInflation: hunger.

In Zimbabwe, "people grow the cereal grain sorghum and pearl millet, crops that are drought resistant and offer a chance at harvests, but even they failed to withstand the conditions this year.

With this year’s harvest a write-off, millions in #Zimbabwe, southern #Malawi, #Mozambique and #Madagascar won’t be able to feed themselves well into 2025."

#hunger
https://www.9news.com.au/world/extreme-drought-in-southern-africa-leaves-millions-hungry/38d2f918-8f2c-42b1-85de-e1f32c6ae0fe

"#UK #harvests of important crops could be down by nearly a fifth this year due to the unprecedented wet weather farmers have faced, increasing the likelihood that the prices of bread, beer and biscuits will rise.

Some farms were badly affected by persistent rain since October, meaning they have not been able to plant any crops, while the wet weather has significantly depleted the amount other farms have been able to plant."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/29/washout-winter-spells-price-rises-for-uk-shoppers-with-key-crops-down-by-a-fifth
#ClimateInflation

Drought is driving #OliveOil prices to staggering new heights

"#Spain, which is the world’s largest olive supplier and home to 40% of the global crop, has been dealing with droughts that have cut output by anywhere from 30% to 50% of its usual 1.3 million metric-ton harvests.
In February Spanish farmers were calling on the government to do more to fight #ClimateChange amid persistent #heatwaves that have decimated their trades."

https://qz.com/olive-oil-prices-climate-change-1851458811
#ClimateInflation

"#Bananas are at risk of a “devastating” disease as extreme heat and volatile rain cycles put the plants under stress, Colombian farmers have warned.

Small-scale producers in the northern Magdalena region who supply bananas to the UK say the impacts of #ClimateChange have increased their costs and hit yields by as much as 50%."

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/life-banana-pip-columbia-el-nino-b2543239.html
#ClimateInflation

"Global warming is leading to smaller yields and poorer quality in #rice crops, according to new research that suggests rice harvests could decrease by up to 35% and quality by up to 85% compared to plants in 1990s climate conditions.

The research suggests that additional high CO2 concentration further worsened production compared to the high temperature alone."

(So much for that claim that CO2 is "plant food" eh).

https://www.yahoo.com/news/study-rice-harvests-quality-worsening-195323415.html
#ClimateInflation

#ClimateChange comes for your #Avocados

"Researchers at the charity Christian Aid said that a hotter, drier world would make it more difficult to provide the significant amount of water needed to grow the fruit.

Mexico, the world’s biggest producer, could see its potential growing area reduced by 31 per cent by 2050 - even if global average temperature rises are limited to under 2C, according to the report. "

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/climate-change-avocados-uk-water-production-christian-aid-report-b1157475.html

"Global warming is bringing on a succession of negative effects on a range of marine creatures across #Japan, such as the relocated habitats of fish and fluctuations in #seafood catches.

Concerns are growing that the summer #heatwave expected this year as well may further exacerbate the situation.
The total seafood catch in Japan has been on a continuous decline."

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15244124
#ClimateInflation

"#Morocco’s harvest of three main grains, soft #wheat, #durum, and #barley, dropped 43% to 3.12 million tons in 2024, due to a severe #drought that slashes cultivated areas."

https://northafricapost.com/77635-drought-ditches-moroccos-cereals-harvest-by-43-in-2024.html

#ClimateInflation

"“Two years ago, we produced 500 tons of oil, and last year, 70,” he said. “The reduced production shattered my dreams.

Athanasios Molasiotis, a professor of agronomy at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, said that higher-than-usual temperatures, which are attributed to #ClimateChange, are affecting the Greek #OliveOil sector in multiple ways."

https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/farmers-in-greece-witness-the-impacts-of-climate-change-after-historically-low-harvest/132043

Where this is going:

This study on "Global impacts of heat and #water stress on #FoodProduction and severe food insecurity" says that if we keep emitting carbon like we do now, 1.36 billion extra people will experience "severe food insecurity" by 2050.

That's 17% of the world population.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-65274-z

This is what #ClimateInflation looks like:

People in the heartland of olive oil - Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece - are consuming less of it: as harvests have gone down, prices have soared.

https://www.ft.com/content/9b284294-1c76-46a0-9fe7-97ea94542c68

ALT

Drought, early frosts, and birds who can't find enough insects to eat in the drought all contribute to a "horror season" for #NewZealand #olive growers.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/520499/horror-season-for-many-olive-oil-producers

"A third of the food price increases in the UK in 2023 was down to climate change, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit think-tank."

https://www.ft.com/content/125e89c0-308a-492f-ae8e-6834847d1186

That's ... a lot.
For the UK, that's called #ClimateInflation .

For developing countries that spend more of their budget on food (and where the ability of growing food is closer to the temperature limits), this could spell real trouble.

"Many [wheat] farmers saw a decline in crop production.

Al-Akhras and others like him say that decades of conflict in #Syria and #ClimateChange are to blame. And we can see the evidence all around the country."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/syrian-farmers-caught-between-grinding-conflict-and-climate-change/ar-BB1pcKvJ?item=flightsprg-tipsubsc-v1a%3Futm_source%3Dmilei.news%2F

"Portions of Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska are grappling with the aftermath of #flooding, while continuing to fight a swollen river. The Mississippi River is facing flood threats, too. The high waters and flooding are suffocating fields, causing #CropDamage to key growing areas across the Midwest."

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/flooding-across-midwest-may-have-wiped-out-1-million-acres-crops-new

You know all this will contribute to #ClimateInflation

And yet.

Whem the article talks about where does all this water come from?
"High pressure"
"Cold front"
"Gulf Moisture"
"Recycle local moisture"
and even
"An unbroken jet stream flow from Japan"
But not a single word about global warming.

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/flooding-across-midwest-may-have-wiped-out-1-million-acres-crops-new

"Different parts of [#China] are being simultaneously hit by floods, droughts and tropical storms, threatening to spur food #inflation if output of wheat, soybeans, rice and corn is affected.

Major rice-growing areas in the south have been soaked by flooding, while droughts further north have damaged wheat and delayed corn and soybean planting."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-08/extreme-weather-poses-risks-for-chinese-crops-power-over-summer

"Futures for [robusta] have surged about 60% this year, touching a fresh high of $4,667 per ton. Concerns about the next harvest are adding to supply fears after hot and dry weather in parts of #Vietnam damaged #coffee trees earlier this year.

#Brazil’s top growing regions have also faced the brunt of harsh weather, pushing up arabica prices. Some farmers pick smaller-than-usual beans following droughts in late 2023 that hurt crop development."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-09/coffee-prices-will-keep-rising-into-2025-roaster-lavazza-says
#ClimateInflation

Drought and heat in #Mexico:
"In January 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture (SADER) estimated a 20 to 40 % reduction in corn production directly due to the drought. By March and April, more products, including coffee beans, were at risk. And by May, some dams in the northwest portion of the country were below 20 percent capacity, endangering crops like corn and sorghum."

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/multi-year-drought-and-heat-waves-across-mexico-2024

Beyond "#ClimateInflation: hunger.

One in 11 people went hungry last year. #ClimateChange is a big reason why.

“The agrifood system is working under risk and uncertainties, and these are being accelerated because of climate [change] and the frequency of climate events,” Máximo Torero Cullen, of the FAO, said. It is a “problem that will continue to increase,” he said, adding that the mounting effects of warming on global food systems create a human rights issue.

https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/one-in-11-people-went-hungry-last-year-climate-change-is-a-big-reason-why/

“Climate change drives [#coffee] prices up

There’s a drum beat in the background that is #ClimateChange, and that is causing problems,” he said. “That will affect the stability of the market and that’s not going to go away for a long time.”

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/01/business/your-coffees-about-to-get-more-expensive-heres-why/index.html
#ClimateInflation

"Key #crops from potatoes and onions to wheat and sugar are being hit by damaging heat, drought and floods around the world, pushing up prices and threatening food security, [ECIU] says.

But while it “is tempting” to suggest that the UK should increase domestic production to make up for poor harvests abroad, #Britain too is struggling in the face of #climate impacts, the organisation said."

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/mediterranean-western-europe-egypt-spain-europe-b2593291.html
#ClimateInflation #UK

"The drought has prompted about a third of the countries in southern Africa to declare a state of disaster. A massive 68 million people across the region need food aid. "

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq6rvz4p37do

"#SouthKorea’s famous #kimchi is falling victim to #ClimateChange, with scientists, farmers and manufacturers saying the quality and quantity of the napa #cabbage that is pickled to make the ubiquitous dish is suffering due to rising temperatures."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/kimchi-no-climate-change-puts-south-koreas-beloved-cabbage-dish-risk-rcna169439

#ClimateInflation

"On an annual scale, the greatest losses affected spring and winter cereal crops – in the Podlaskie and Mazovian voivodeships, where even 50-74% of the cultivated area struggled with a water deficit. Significant water shortages were also recorded in the cultivation of fruit bushes, strawberries, rapeseed, fodder rape, corn, and leguminous plants. Many farmers in regions affected by drought can expect lower yields this year."

https://wodnesprawy.pl/en/the-drought-in-poland-this-summer-has-not-been/
#Poland #drought

" Despite record heatwaves, floods and storms across much of South-east Asia in 2024, more people in the region are concerned about bread-and-butter issues such as #FoodSecurity than about #ClimateChange, according to a new survey."

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/as-climate-threat-grows-s-e-asians-focus-on-inflation-food-security-iseas-survey

People need help connecting the dots: that climate change has effects on their grocery bills.
That's what this #ClimateInflation thread is about.

“Our #citrus growers are resilient, but after fighting citrus greening for nearly two decades and having three major hurricanes in the past seven years devastate the heart of our growing region, growers are weary,” he said in a statement Friday.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-12/florida-orange-growers-were-set-for-a-turnaround-then-hurricane-milton-hit
#Florida #oranges #HurricaneMilton

Farmers Worldwide Hit by Climate Change

"Globally 75 percent of #farmers are already impacted by #ClimateChange or are worried about its impacts, and 71 percent say reduced yields are a major concern. Six out of 10 have already experienced significant revenue loss due to abnormal weather events.

Spanning eight countries — China, Australia, Brazil, Germany, India, Kenya, Ukraine and the U.S. — the survey interviewed over 2,000 farmers between June and July."

https://www.stdaily.com/web/English/2024-10/10/content_240501.html

"A lack of #water is a hidden and growing driver of #hunger that affects one in every 11 people, the WRI said. Rice, wheat and corn — which make up more than half of the world’s food calories — are particularly vulnerable, with a third of those crops grown using highly stressed or variable water supplies.

Water scarcity could cause high-income countries’ #GDP to shrink by 8% by mid-century and a drop of up to 15% in poorer countries, it said."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-10-18/global-food-roundup-water-stress-threatens-quarter-of-crops
#ClimateInflation

Hotter summers in Japan are hard both on rice crops and on the aging farmers growing them.

"Last year, #Japan recorded a poor #rice harvest nationwide because of exceptionally hot weather. Ministry data showed the country’s private-sector rice inventory fell to 1.56 million tons in June, the lowest level since records began in 1999."

https://japantoday.com/category/national/aging-farmers-face-extreme-temperatures-as-they-struggle-to-maintain-japan%27s-rice-crop?

"#SouthSudan is [a] #ClimateChange hotspot. A significant concern is the increasing emergence and incidence of crop pests that threaten the plant health and livelihoods of approximately 86% of rural households which depend on agriculture.

Common pests include elegant grasshoppers, bollworms, cassava whiteflies, cutworms, African armyworms, stalk borers, and aphids.

The fall armyworm is one of the invasive pests in South Sudan associated with climate change."

https://www.eurasiareview.com/20102024-climate-change-induced-pests-remain-major-bottleneck-to-agricultural-productivity-and-food-security-in-south-sudan/

"The #Philippines is set to be drenched by its fourth storm in just over a month, which threatens to add to a growing tally of crop losses that total at least 11.5 bn pesos (US $97 million) this year.

#TyphoonYinxing — known locally as Marce — is forecast to bring more than 200 millimetres (8 inches) of torrential rain to Cagayan province.

Nearly 1.1 million hectares of rice and corn crops could be affected by Yinxing, according to the agriculture department."

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2896403/philippines-braces-for-another-typhoon-after-storms-swamp-crops.

"Europe is grappling with a severe #cereal production crisis, exacerbated by adverse weather conditions, high production costs with stable prices, low quality of output, and stiff competition from Ukraine.

“This season was particularly challenging due to a series of adverse weather events for harvest,” he added, highlighting how droughts in Southeastern Europe and excessive autumn rainfall have negatively impacted both quantity and quality of harvests."

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/11/20/europe-faces-growing-crisis-in-cereal-production
#wheat #maize

"Some British retailers and wholesalers have been forced to switch to sourcing #oranges from South Africa and South America early after last month’s catastrophic floods in eastern #Spain left farmers struggling to harvest and ship their crops."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/23/spains-floods-force-uk-sellers-buy-oranges-southern-hemisphere

This leads to #ClimateInflation in your grocery bill.

(Also, know the seasons of your produce.
So you don't have to buy them from the *other hemisphere*).

"Global #wine production is expected to drop to its lowest level since 1961, marking 2024 as a historically poor year for winemaking.

This represents a 2% decline compared to 2023, which itself was a low-production year. “The ongoing drop in wine production globally is directly linked to #ClimateChange,” stated John Barker, OIV’s Director-General."

https://www.senenews.com/en/international/global-wine-production-hits-record-low-in-2024-due-to-climate-change-4408.html

Call it what it is: #ClimateInflation.

"Economists are increasingly starting to assemble evidence that global heating is putting systemic upward pressure on food #inflation – as well as injecting volatility into the food production system worldwide.

The challenges can be compounded by climate-related transport bottlenecks, as when the number of ships that could transit the Panama Canal each day had to be cut because of low water levels."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/dec/01/wake-up-and-smell-the-coffee-rising-food-prices-show-destabilising-impact-of-climate-crisis

Sinterklaas more costly this year as cocoa prices skyrocket

"Sharp rises in #cocoa prices have made this year' Sinterklaas celebrations more costly, De Tijd warned on Friday. Prices are unlikely to drop any time soon.

The main culprits for the rising prices are fungal diseases in cocoa plants and bad weather, which resulted in terrible harvests in crucial cocoa-producing countries in West Africa."

https://www.brusselstimes.com/1342994/sinterklaas-more-costly-this-year-as-cocoa-prices-skyrocket

"In 2022, inflation reached 9% in the U.S. — the highest rate in over 40 years. That was part of a global trend [resulting from[ the lingering impacts of the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, higher fuel and energy prices, and food export bans issued by a number of countries.

Extreme weather shocks were another leading cause of escalating prices, said Alla Semenova,. “Climate change is an important part of the inflationary puzzle,” she said."

https://gizmodo.com/the-real-reason-everythings-getting-more-expensive-2000535012

#ClimateChange affects the entire food supply chain, from farm to fork.

"As global temperatures rise and weather patterns become increasingly erratic, the agricultural sector faces profound challenges that ripple through the entire #food supply chain, from production to transportation and storage."

https://earth.org/from-farm-to-table-the-economic-impact-of-climate-change-on-the-food-chain/
#ClimateInflation

“Nowadays, the catch is at around 70 percent of the catch when I first came to Geoje,” she said, adding that her older colleagues complain that nature was “richer and more generous 10 to 15 years ago.”

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-12-26/national/socialAffairs/Mainland-haenyeo-despair-as-climate-change-turns-Koreas-seas-barren/2205778

Global food production at increased risk from excess salt in soil, UN report warns

"Scientists say #climate crisis and poor agricultural practices to blame with serious implications for crop yields

Water scarcity, poor drainage, and overexploitation of the soil are key factors behind the increase in salinity. #SeaLevelRses will exacerbate this, with the incursion of saltwater into coastal areas."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/dec/11/global-food-production-at-increased-risk-from-excess-salt-in-soil-un-report-warns?s=04

#ClimateInflation hits poor people first.

Hospital admissions for lack of vitamins soaring in #England

“We have seen fresh, healthier foods spike in price over the last few years, making a nutritious diet increasingly unaffordable for some, while fast foods are cheap and filling but are low in nutritious content. GPs are on the frontline of this public health crisis, caring for patients who are experiencing the health consequences of growing deprivation.”

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jan/01/hospital-admissions-lack-of-vitamins-iron-nhs-figures